SPORTS SCENE NOLA

The Road Underdogs (4-4)

Colts (+3) vs. Broncos

Seahawks (+5.5) vs. Saints

Giants (+8) vs. Packers

Steelers (+14) vs. Bills

Lions (+3) vs. Patriots

Texans (+7) vs. Jaguars

Cowboys (+5.5) vs. Rams

Bengals (+3) vs. Ravens PUSH

The week kicks off with the Colts and Broncos, and while it hurts not having Jonathan Taylor, the Broncos with Russell Wilson has been a mess.

The Seahawks have been the feel good story of the season, and the Saints have been the feel bad story of the season. In Geno We Trust.

I remember the Giants beating up on Aaron Rogers in too many playoff games to trust the Packers to cover this spread. And Saquon Barkley is hitting another level.

Kenny Pickett will give the Steelers a spark. Last year, the Steelers gave the Bills fits in Buffalo. I’m going to ride with Mike Tomlin to keep this game competitive.

The most exciting team in football is the Detroit Lions? The most exciting team in football is the Detroit Lions!

The Jaguars feel like a team that will do the complete opposite of what everyone expects of them this season. They’re a young team, and winning the games your supposed to is one of the last steps learned.

Not feeling Matthew Stafford against Micah Parsons. The Cowboys elite pass rusher will keep this game close.

The vibes are not right in Baltimore, and the Bengals can get back to first place with a win.

The Home Underdogs (0-1)

Chargers vs. Browns (+2.5)

I fear for Justin Herbert against the Browns pressure. And Nick Chubb has been solid every week.

The Home Favorites (0-2)

Bears vs. Vikings (-7.5)

Falcons vs. Buccaneers (-9.5)

Raiders vs. Chiefs (-7)

The Bears can’t throw the ball, which is great news for a very bad Vikings defense.

The Falcons can’t throw the ball, which is great news for a very good Buccaneers defense.

Patrick Mahomes in primetime is as much a sure thing as there is.

The Road Favorites (2-2)

Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Jets

Titans (-1.5) vs. Commanders

49ers (-6.5) vs. Panthers

Eagles (-5) vs. Cardinals

I’m expecting more of the bad Zach Wilson and good Teddy Bridgewater.

That’s just rude to the Titans.

That’s just rude to the 49ers.

The Jalen Hurts-for-MVP hype won’t stop this week as the Eagles remain the league’s last unbeaten.

The Road Underdogs (4-4)

Dolphins (+4.0) vs. Bengals

Commanders (+3.5) vs. Cowboys

Seahawks (+4.5) vs. Lions

Titans (+3.5) vs. Colts

Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Eagles

Jets (+3.5) vs. Steelers

Cardinals (+1.5) vs. Panthers

Rams (+2.5) vs. 49ers

At least four of these lines feature the better team as the underdog, which even factoring in them being on the road feels like a bit much. The Dolphins are much better than the Bengals right now. The Titans inspire more confidence than the Colts, while the Cardinals and Rams are better than the Panthers and 49ers. I like the Lions to win, but their defense will allow Geno Smith to keep things interesting. -6.5 is a lot of points to give the Eagles, especially against a team that just won by 28. The Commanders will bounce back from that awful performance a week ago. And until the Steelers move on from Trubisky, I can’t in good conscience put money on them.

The Home Favorites (2-1)

Bears vs. Giants (-3.5)

Patriots vs. Packers (-10)

Broncos vs. Raiders (-2.5)

Perhaps three of the worst offenses on the road? Bet the home favorites! Justin Fields has been a disaster for the Bears despite a 2-1 start, and the Patriots are without Mac Jones heading into their game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Broncos are just depressing despite their 2-1 record, while if the Raiders don’t win this week, McDaniels may be back in New England calling plays by the end of October.

The Road Favorites (1-2)

Browns (-1.5) vs. Falcons

Bills (-3.5) vs. Ravens

Chargers (-5) vs. Texans

-1.5 for the Browns feels disrespectful. Absolutely no way the Falcons stop Chubb in his return to Georgia. The Bills and Chargers, meanwhile, are out for blood after both crashed a week ago.

The Home Underdogs (0-2)

Vikings vs. Saints (+2.5)

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers (+2)

The Vikings defense is as much as mess as the Saints offense. If the Saints can’t get it right on that side of the ball now, when? And people beginning to doubt Tom Brady? Sounds like the perfect time to back him in primetime.

This week: 7-9

Another week is in the books, and another week with Justin Fields and the Bears offense failing to ignite. Meanwhile, it’s no coincidence that the two remaining undefeated teams in football, the Eagles and Dolphins, field the two quarterbacks with the best performances in week three.

As a reminder, for these rankings I evaluate the quarterbacks based off the number of dropbacks that result in a passing attempt or sack. To find the yardage I’ll divide by the number of dropbacks by, I take the team’s passing yards total (which accounts for yards lost due to sacks) and also remove the quarterback’s longest pass to account for a random big play, as opposed to a quarterback consistently connecting on deeper passes. Per Pro Football Reference’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt formula, I then weight the numbers by accounting for touchdowns (positively) and interceptions (negatively). The quarterbacks’ numbers shown (dropbacks, yards, touchdowns and interceptions) are the players’ stats with their longest pass play removed.

The Best Performances of the Week

THIS WEEK	LAST WEEK	QUARTERBACK	DROPBACKS	YARDS	TOUCHDOWNS	INTERCEPTIONS
1	5	JALEN HURTS	37	283	3	0
2	3	TUA TAGOVAILOA	18	134	1	0
3	15	MATTHEW STAFFORD	25	207	0	0
4	4	TREVOR LAWRENCE	38	227	3	0
5	27	MARCUS MARIOTA	22	177	1	1
6	31	RYAN TANNEHILL	27	211	1	1
7	22	JOE BURROW	37	205	2	0
8	1	LAMAR JACKSON	32	171	4	1
9	14	JACOBY BRISSETT	32	160	2	0
10	10	COOPER RUSH	30	186	1	0

The play of Hurts and Tagovailoa has dominated the early season, and both are leading teams to their best starts in years. Stafford has gotten better each week, but it is remarkable that with a pedestrian stat-line he was able to manage a top three finish this week. Lawrence’s numbers look solid, but when you factor in the fact that it took Lawrence 13 more attempts to gain just 20 more yards and one touchdown, that wasn’t enough to outdo Stafford’s efficient outing. Tagovailoa, likewise, was able to finish #2 with just 134 yards, but he gained those on 18 attempts, while also throwing for one touchdown.

The Worst Performances of the Week

THIS WEEK	LAST WEEK	QUARTERBACK	DROPBACKS	YARDS	TOUCHDOWNS	INTERCEPTIONS
28	23	BAKER MAYFIELD	27	81	0	0
29	8	JOE FLACCO	55	229	0	2
30	21	DANIEL JONES	41	148	0	1
31	16	CARSON WENTZ	51	108	0	0
32	32	JUSTIN FIELDS	21	58	0	2

Despite the victory, the Panthers had to struggle through a bad Mayfield performance with the exception of one long pass play. Remove that play, and Mayfield’s 27 dropbacks resulted in an average of three yards per.

Joe Flacco Carson Wentz both had plenty of attempts to make something happen, buth Flacco (33 yards) and Wentz (58 yards) lost a shocking number of yards due to sacks. Fields, meanwhile, put up another monstrous performance. Removing his best play as well as the 24 yards lost on sacks, Fields’ 21 dropbacks gained the team just 58 yards. With his two interceptions, his dropback’s adjusted average was a net negative for the team for a second consecutive week.

Week 3 is already here! We’re still learning a lot about each team this early in the season, and this week will help us determine what early season trends are here to stay and which ones are fads.

These are my picks for week 3.

The Road Underdogs (0-2)

Steelers (+4.5) vs. Browns

Texans (+2.5) vs. Bears

The Steelers will always be competitive under Mike Tomlin, and while I think the Browns are the better team, I don’t like them getting more than a field goal over a divisional foe, especially one with pedigree of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bears, meanwhile, have begun the season by making Matt Nagy look like an offensive guru. The 28 pass attempts from Justin Fields are by far the fewest in the NFL and is the same amount as the 49ers, the team with the next fewest pass attempts, have as completions. They are a dumpster fire, and I like Lovie Smith in his return to Soldier Field.

The Home Favorites (0-2)

Lions vs. Vikings (-6.0)

Jaguars vs. Chargers (-7.0)

Cowboys vs. Giants (-1.0)

I went back-and-forth with my Lions-Vikings pick. I think the Lions are going to be better than people realize this year, while the Vikings are going to be one of the harder teams to pin down. They have enough talent on offense, and with the game out of primetime, we have a better chance of seeing prime Kirk Cousins.

The Chargers should absolutely win over AFC South leading Jacksonville, and I like that team enough to cover by a touchdown. As for the Giants, I expect the good times to keep rolling. Somehow, the Giants at 3-0 sounds less weird than Cooper Rush beginning his career as a starter 3-0.

The Road Favorites (3-2)

Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Colts

Bills (-5.5) vs. Dolphins

Ravens (-3.0) vs. Patriots

Bengals (-6.0) vs. Jets

Eagles (-6.5) vs. Commanders

It’s no coincidence that four of these teams have looked like they belong in the top class in the NFL, while the Bengals will get things going one of these weeks. On the road against the Jets might not be the best time to back them, but give me the Bengals to bounce back and the Jets to crash down after the high of last week’s comeback.

The Home Underdogs (3-1)

Saints vs. Panthers (+2.5)

Raiders vs. Titans (+2.0)

Rams vs. Cardinals (+3.5)

49ers vs. Broncos (+1.5)

The Titans have a lot to prove after a disastrous 0-2 start. While 0-3 won’t sink them in the AFC South, the panic meter will rise on Ryan Tannehill with a loss. As for the Panthers, they are a few plays away from being 2-0, and are playing a Saints team with no identity on offense. I like the Panthers pass rush to get to Winston and Mayfield should have time to throw. And something just doesn’t feel right about the Rams, while I’ll remain bullish on the Broncos. Things will click for that team soon enough, and I believe it starts Sunday night.

Pick ‘Em (1-1)

Falcons (EVEN) vs. Seahawks

Packers vs. Buccaneers (EVEN)

Falcons-Seahawks in a battle for worst NFC team and Packers-Buccaneers in a battle for best NFC team. I think the Seahawks best days of 2022 are behind them, while I’m not sure anyone will be able to score on the Buccaneers this season.

This week: 7-8

Last week: 6-10

Overall: 20-26

Sunday treated us to some outrageous finishes throughout the league, including an early contender for game of the year between the Dolphins and Ravens. Both Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa were excellent, and were among the best quarterbacks of the week. In fact, Lamar Jackson grades out with the most impressive performance from the weekend.

As a reminder, to come up with this list, I do a slightly modified take on the formula used for adjusted net passing yards per attempt, where I eliminate the best passing result from the total yardage and attempts. I do this because I believe it better accounts for the efficiency of a team’s passing offense. If a disproportionate amount of a team’s passing production comes on one play, then the offense wasn’t consistently contributing much to the team’s success.

QUARTERBACK	COMPLETIONS	DROPBACKS	NET YARDS	TDs	INTs
LAMAR JACKSON	20	28	243	3	0
JOSH ALLEN	25	38	274	4	0
TUA TAGOVAILOA	35	49	401	6	2
TREVOR LAWRENCE	24	29	209	2	0
JALEN HURTS	25	33	270	1	1
JARED GOFF	19	36	185	4	0
AARON RODGERS	18	27	156	2	0
JOE FLACCO	25	45	226	4	0
DEREK CARR	24	39	221	2	0
COOPER RUSH	18	31	184	1	0
JIMMY GAROPPOLO	12	21	116	1	0
PATRICK MAHOMES	23	36	185	2	0
JUSTIN HERBERT	32	49	287	3	1
JACOBY BRISSETT	21	27	191	1	1
MATTHEW STAFFORD	26	36	243	3	2
CARSON WENTZ	29	50	268	3	1
MAC JONES	20	34	208	1	1
RUSSELL WILSON	13	33	166	1	1
TOM BRADY	17	34	147	1	0
KYLER MURRAY	30	49	241	1	1
DANIEL JONES	21	36	138	1	0
JOE BURROW	23	41	146	1	0
BAKER MAYFIELD	13	30	100	1	0
GENO SMITH	23	31	153	0	1
DAVIS MILLS	18	40	125	0	0
MITCHELL TRUBISKY	20	35	129	1	1
MARCUS MARIOTA	16	28	132	2	2
KIRK COUSINS	26	47	183	1	3
JAMEIS WINSTON	24	45	155	1	3
MATT RYAN	15	34	125	0	3
RYAN TANNEHILL	10	21	82	0	2
JUSTIN FIELDS	6	13	17	0	1

Even in a loss – and subtracting his one 75-yard throw – Lamar Jackson was the standout quarterback of week two, and that’s not taking into account his abilities as a ball carrier. In the 28 recorded drop-backs, he accounted for 243 yards through the air and three touchdowns for an adjusted average of 10.82. The model liked Jackson’s performance by 1.5 points over Josh Allen, who recorded 31 yards and one touchdown more than Jackson, but it took him ten extra drop-backs to get to those numbers.

Tua Tagovailoa would have been a runaway number one if not for his two interceptions, , but he was so impressive in the Dolphins victory over the Ravens that even with two turnovers through the air he was the third best quarterback of week two.

Aaron Rodgers was workmanlike in his first appearance as a top ten quarterback this year, while Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, and Jared Goff surprised with their winning performances on Sunday. The much talked about QB matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert ended with both falling just short of the top ten, at 12 and 13. The week’s #11? None other than Jimmy Garoppolo, who could have just saved the 49ers’ season.

On the other end up the spectrum, there were plenty of bad quarterback performances this week, including our first three negative performances of the season! Anyone who watched the primetime games this weekend saw three really good quarterback play (Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts) and quarterbacks that make up 60% of the bottom five performances of the week. It started Sunday night when Justin Fields followed up last week‘s bottom five performance with one that was somehow worse. When removing his one 31-yard pass play and accounting for the three extra drop-backs that resulted in sacks, Fields’ had 13 passing situations that resulted in six completions for 17 yards and one interception. Monday night began with a performance nearly as disastrous, Ryan Tannehill showing a severe decline after last week’s top ten performance. His longest pass of the night was only 19 yards, but couple that with the 16 yards he lost on two sacks, and Tannehill was only able to produce 82 yards on 21 of the team’s dropbacks, completing less than half of the attempts while also being intercepted twice. And then Kirk Cousins came through with the “best” performance of the three dreadful primetime appearances. Let’s just put it this way; his performance elevated Marcus Mariota’s performance on Sunday to just outside the bottom five of the week. His long for the night was also only 19 yards, but he also took two sacks for just as many yards. When you take away his best throw of the night and the 19 yards lost to the sacks, Cousins had 47 dropbacks produce a paltry 183 yards.

The weekend’s other worst performances aren’t a shock to anyone. Matt Ryan was unable to get the Colts in the endzone, and only produced 125 yards on the 34 recorded drop-backs while also throwing three interceptions. Jameis Winston likewise put up a dreadful showing on Sunday, also being intercepted three times. And Winston was similarly under duress as Ryan. Taking into account the six drop-backs that resulted in 30 yards being lost on offense as well as his long of the day of 51-yards, Winston had 45 passing situations that netted the team just 155 yards.

For a week two game, the stakes feel incredibly high in the lead-up to Bucs-Saints in New Orleans. The Saints can jump out to a 2-0 record within the division and a leg up on the projected favorites to win the NFC South – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – while the Bucs will begin to pave the way to consecutive south division titles with a victory.

While oddsmakers would have us believe the Buccaneers will come away with the win on Sunday, I’m a bit more skeptical about their chances. This past weekend, the Buccaneers looked a cut above the rest of the NFC in a defensive clinic against the Cowboys, but some of the things the Buccaneers did best a week ago plays into the strengths of the Saints defense. Leonard Fournette turned in a dominant performance last week with 21 carries and 127 yards, good enough to average six yards per carry. But of those numbers, a disproportionate amount came to the left side of the offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, 16 of Fournette’s 21 carries took the running back to the left side of the line. He was brilliant on those carries, picking up 118 yards at a healthy 7.4 yards per carry (YPC). The team largely avoided running to the right side, however, and it’s hard not to justify that decision when the result is five carries for nine yards (1.8 YPC).

If you watched Cordarrell Patterson become the first running back since 2020 to rack up 100+ yards on the ground against the Saints defense, it would be fair to be concerned that Fournette could find similar success this weekend. Patterson had an even split of carries to the left and right side, and on his eleven carries to the right, he averaged an impressive 78 yards (7.1 YPC). To the left, his eleven carries netted 42 yards, an average of 3.8 YPC.

PLAYER	ATTEMPTS LEFT	YARDS LEFT	ATTEMPTS RIGHT	YARDS RIGHT
LEONARD FOURNETTE	16	118	5	9
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON	11	42	11	78

If the Buccaneers aren’t able to run out of multiple looks and formations on Sunday, it could spell doom for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers passing game, as they could potentially see themselves playing behind the sticks. And while the Saints weren’t able to sack Marcus Mariota a week ago, going against a far less mobile quarterback may help in that department, as Brady did find himself under pressure on occasion against the Cowboys.

As for the Buccaneers on defense, nose tackle Vita Vea will perhaps be their most important player. While the Buccaneers get most of their pass rush off the edge, the Saints are strongest at the tackle position. According to PFF, James Hurst (89.5) and Ryan Ramczyk (81.0) graded out as two of the best pass blocking tackles in week one. The interior of the line is where the Saints struggled against the Falcons, and the grades given to Andrus Peat (65.9) and Cesar Ruiz (43.9) reflect as much. Vea recorded a sack and four pressures (combination of sacks, hits to the QB, and forced hurried throws) last week, and could feast against weaker competition again this weekend.

In a game where the teams’ strengths and weaknesses are inversely related to each other, the one advantage could be the dome. Yes, the Alvin Kamara injury is a critical situation to keep an eye on, but the Buccaneers are arguably in a worse position when it comes to injuries at key positions. Wide receiver Chris Godwin has already been ruled out, while fellow receivers Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage are all listed as questionable, same as Kamara. Their best lineman, Tristan Wirfs, is also questionable, as is Fournette. For the Saints, both Winston and running back Mark Ingram are also on the injury report with a “questionable” designation, and if the team is down to Andy Dalton and Tony Jones Jr. as their starters in the backfield, things may get dicey quick for the Saints.

While both teams are already feeling the impact of the injury bug, that the Saints get to host this game in their first home game of the 2022 season feels like the most significant advantage. Odds are come January the Buccaneers with Tom Brady will once again be the last team standing out of the NFC South. But the division won’t be a cakewalk for the Buccaneers, and we’ll find out why on Sunday.

Update (Sunday): With the official list for the weekend’s actives and inactives set, we now know the Saints will be without Kamara, while Winston and Ingram are going to suite up. Meanwhile, for the Buccaneers, Julio Jones is officially out, while Evans, Gage, and Wirfs are available. I will still ride with my initial prediction, even though Tampa Bay’s chances of winning greatly increase with the Saints unable to turn to Kamara in their backfield. I still like the Saints ability to rush Brady in this game, and I’m wary of Fournette’s ability to replicate last week’s success, particularly if the Bucs are restricted to running towards the left all game. The dome will be electric, and as great as Brady is, the circumstances surrounding his appearance are anything but for the Buccaneers.

Game Prediction: New Orleans 24 – Tampa Bay 17

If Tampa Bay wins: Tampa Bay 20 – New Orleans 10

The Road Underdogs (3-5)

Chargers (+4.0) vs. Chiefs

As good as the Chiefs looked last week, it will be difficult to replicate that performance against the division rival Chargers. And on a short week, will the Chiefs be able to find any offense besides Travis Kelce?

Commanders (+1.0) vs. Lions

While the Lions certainly earned their status as favorites this week with an inspired performance against the Eagles, I am somehow slightly more confident in Carson Wentz than I am in Jared Goff.

Panthers (+2.0) vs. Giants

The Giants were the best surprise coming out of week one, but I don’t expect things to go so well in their home opener. The Panthers put on a better showing than most anticipated, and while Baker Mayfield pretty much validated the Browns decision to move on from him in the offseason, he’s at his best when he’s underestimated. In what could end up as a duel between Christian McCaffery and Saquon Barkley, give me McCaffery.

Falcons (+10.0) vs. Rams

Did bettors see the same Rams team I saw last Thursday? Unless Matthew Stafford has the same elixir that Jameis Winston found last Sunday, I have my doubts that he will have much success against a revitalized Falcons front four. They harassed Winston a week ago, and for a Rams team replacing key contributors on the offensive line, this doesn’t have the recipe for being a Rams blowout.

Seahawks (+8.5) vs. 49ers

Geno hive, stand up! The most remarkable performance of the weekend perhaps came from Geno Smith, considering the circumstances. He outplayed Russell Wilson in his return to Seattle, and looked like a legitimate starting quarterback in the process. Trey Lance did not, and while that may have more to do with the rain than anything else, nothing in last week’s performances leads me to believe that the 49ers are capable right now of beating the Seahawks by more than a touchdown.

Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Raiders

Titans (+10.0) vs. Bills

Both the Cardinals and Titans need this game. While the prospect of starting 0-2 isn’t a death knell for both teams, it will put both in a position of needing to play catch-up going forward. The Titans in particular will find it an uphill battle to reclaim the conference’s #1 seed that they had last year. While I have doubts that either will win outright in week two, both will put up better efforts than they did this past Sunday.

Vikings (+2.0) vs. Eagles

Both teams looked solid in week one, but I like the offensive firepower of the Vikings more than I do the Eagles.

The Road Favorites (1-1)

Patriots (-2.0) vs. Steelers

Colts (-3.5) vs. Jaguars

Winning in Pittsburgh is no small task, and while I already hate picking a Matt Patricia-coordinated offense against a Mike Tomlin coached defense, I have to believe the Patriots are better than their performance a week ago indicated, while the Steelers had difficulties winning a game the Bengals by all accounts wanted very badly to give to them.

The Home Underdogs (1-1)

Buccaneers vs. Saints (+2.5)

Bengals vs. Cowboys (+7.0)

The Saints have been Tom Brady’s kryptonite since joining the Bucs, and their less than inspired performance on Sunday in Dallas doesn’t give me hope that they will find offensive rhythm against the Saints. And while the Bengals should absolutely dominate, I’m not so sure I’m comfortable riding with a Bengals team that still can’t protect its most important player.

The Home Favorites (1-3)

Jets vs. Browns (-6.5)

Dolphins vs. Ravens (-3.5)

Texans vs. Broncos (-10.0)

Bears vs. Packers (-10.0)

The Jets look just as hapless as ever, and I love that matchup for the Browns defensive line. The Ravens and Dolphins probably looked better than they actually are last week, but I think the Ravens are closer to a championship level right now, and Lamar Jackson will show us why on Sunday.

Outside of Dallas, the Broncos and Packers delivered the two most disappointing performances of the weekend, but both should have fanbases easing off the panic meter with dominant week two victories.

Last week: 7-8

This week: 6-10

Overall: 13-18

The quarterback position is arguably the most consequential position in sports, and with that comes added scrutiny and analysis. I’ve come up with a formula to help determine the quarterbacks who are performing at the highest level in 2022, and those that are going to need to improve if their teams are going anywhere this season. I included the key stats for the 15 players you see here, but to come up with this list I wanted to account for the consistency at the position. To help adjust for that, I removed the longest completion from each quarterback, meaning eliminating one completion, one attempt, and the yards gained from the completion. I then found the quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (formulat at Profootballreference.com) using the updated numbers. You’ll be surprised by some of the names on these lists, but each earned their spot this week.

The Best Quarterback Play Of Week One

1	Patrick Mahomes	30-39	360 yards	5 TD
2	Justin Herbert	26-34	279 yards	3 TD
3	Ryan Tannehill	20-33	266 yards	2 TD
4	Kirk Cousins	23-32	277 yards	2 TD
5	Jameis Winston	23-34	269 yards	2 TD
6	Geno Smith	23-28	195 yards	2 TD
7	Davis Mills	23-37	240 yards	2 TD
8	Kyler Murray	22-34	193 yards	2 TD
9	Lamar Jackson	17-30	213 yards	3 TD	1 INT
10	Carson Wentz	27-41	313 yards	4 TD	2 INT

No surprises at the top, as Patrick Mahomes was as brilliant as ever in his team’s victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Justin Herbert showed why his team has so much hype around them for 2022, as he was another standout this weekend. In a bit of a surprise, the numbers have Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, and Jameis Winston rounding out the top five QB performances for the week. The three put up nearly identical numbers this week, Winston having the most dropbacks at 38 (he was sacked four times.) Both Cousins and Tannehill were sacked once each, yet Tannehill’s sack lost the team zero yards while the sack on Cousins produced an eight-yard loss.

The Worst Quarterback Play Of Week One

33	Matthew Stafford	29-41	240 yards	1 TD	3 INT
32	Dak Prescott	14-29	134 yards		1 INT
31	Joe Burrow	33-53	338 yards	2 TD	4 INT
30	Trey Lance	13-28	164 yards		1 INT
29	Aaron Rodgers	22-34	195 yards		1 INT

This list goes to show just how random week one truly is in the NFL. Absolutely no one suspects that Joe Burrow or Aaron Rodgers will finish the year among the bottom five in all quarterbacks, while injuries or inexperience could potentially crater the abilities of Stafford, Prescott, or Lance. But I wouldn’t count on it. What’s more likely is Stafford will bounce back, as will Prescott when he returns from the injury list. Trey Lance is the biggest mystery of the bunch but is aided by one of the brightest play callers in the league and some elite playmakers, meaning brighter days are likely ahead for Lance.

Despite a promising start – what with Taysom Hill proving his vitality within the Saints offense with two fantastic runs and an equally great effort from Pete Werner on an early forced fumble – the Saints found themselves in a position that, until Sunday, almost certainly meant that they would lose their first game, to hated divisional rival the Atlanta Falcons, nonetheless. They were down 26-10 entering the fourth quarter, a sixteen-point deficit that, when faced 208 times previously, ended with the Saints collecting the L. And there was nothing in particular that occurred during this game’s first 45 minutes that convinced anyone watching that time 209 would be any different.

But then the Falcons came calling.

And offense that was dormant in the first half, a passing offense that was literally a net negative for the team at the half (when the Saints had -2 yards passing), came to life out of thin air, or whatever was in that blue medical tent Jameis Winston went into before he absolutely took off in the fourth. Whether due to a change in scheme or a tiring front, the Falcons pass rush that made the Saints look like the clear fourth best team in the NFC South through three quarters was unable to fluster Winston at all, and he diced up the Falcons secondary with his new and improved receiving corps.

But just as the Saints finally kicked into gear, trailing by two with a two-point conversion to go, they seemingly did everything in their power to not score the necessary points to win the game. First, on the two-point play, the team ran the wildcat formation, which had resulted in the team’s best running plays up to that point. The only problem was that instead of Taysom Hill in the backfield, the team had Mark Ingram take the snap in a rushed attempt to try to catch the Falcons off guard. It didn’t work.

Next, when facing a third-and-six from the Atlanta 44-yard line, a Marcus Mariota incompletion – which would have resulted in the Saints getting the ball back with more than 90 seconds and two timeouts – was wiped out by a 5-yard defensive holding call on Marshon Lattimore, which gave the Falcons a new set of downs. Now just needing one first down, and one yard to get it, to seal the game, the Falcons truly played down to their reputation with a fumbled snap by Mariota, which actually turned out not be as big of a disaster as it could have been, with him getting back to the line of scrimmage. Arthur Smith’s next decision was the most inexplicable, taking a delay of game penalty and pushing his team back five yards instead of trusting the running back that had just become the first player to run for 100 yards against the Saints since 2020 to gain one more yard.

But with only forty seconds and no timeouts, a drive beginning from their own 25-yard line didn’t seem like a recipe for a team about to pull of a winning drive. But Jameis Winston was precise in a huge deep through to homegrown talent Jarvis Landry. The team, thinking the clock was running, hurried to the line to spike the ball. How no one on the sideline was able to articulate to anyone on the field that they, you know, didn’t need to hurry up, is the type of communication breakdown that would sink most teams. But the Saints overcame that and another premature spike two snaps later when the Saints could have run enough time off the clock to not allow the Falcons enough of a shot to pull off a last-second victory.

But as weird as all that was, the ending was truly remarkable. The Falcons were seemingly out of all hope when Cordarrell Patterson took a five-yard completion to their own 40-yard line with two seconds remaining. But Lattimore gifted the Falcons with an inexcusable 15-yard personal foul penalty that allowed the Falcons to attempt a game-winning field goal. It was only then that the Saints decided to win the game, 2021 first-round draft pick Payton Turner coming up with the game-sealing block on Yung-hoo Koo’s kick.

In what was an absolutely ridiculous game that didn’t make much sense, here are the things that we’re most trying to sort out to see what it means.

The Saints Offense Is Still Looking For Its Footing Post-Brees

In the 18 games now without Drew Brees, one thing that has made itself most clear is how much of a model of a consistency he was at the position. While he ultimately led the team to victory this week, Jameis Winston was not able to do anything through three quarters, largely due to his offensive line being unable to keep with a Falcons pass rush that was downright awful a season ago. The offensive stagnation has been a large part of the Saints experience since Brees retired, and it was disappointing to see the same inability to get anything going on that side of the ball during the second and third quarters.

Holes In The Saints Defense?

A unit that will need to be among the best in the league for the team to achieve their lofty goals for this season did not play their best Sunday. Despite two great defensive plays on their two fumble recoveries, the Falcons gashed the Saints defense to the tune of 201 yards rushing and 416 yards overall. And while Mariota is a mobile quarterback, the team was unable to record a single sack. But despite those negatives, the Saints defense did enough good things that I’m left not as concerned about them on that side of the ball. Of their thirteen third-down attempts, the Falcons were only able to convert on five of those. And while the Falcons ran 14 more plays than the Saints, they averaged nearly one yard less per play than the Saints.

My prediction is in bold. The actual team to cover is italicized.

The Home ‘Dogs (3-1)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (+5.5)

49ers @ Bears (+6.5)

Eagles @ Lions (+6)

Chiefs @ Cardinals (+6.5)

The Falcons, Bears, Lions, and Cardinals are all projected to lose by more than a field goal, and while they are all playing superior opponents, sportsbooks are being a little too generous to the road teams. The Saints and Falcons will always be competitive due to it being a division match, while the weather in Chicago should neutralize any athletic advantage the 49ers have over the Bears. The Lions will most likely be bad again, but they proved last year that under Dan Campbell they will be a difficult out for any opponent, while the Cardinals have enough offensive firepower to keep up with a new-look Chiefs offense.

The Home Favorites (1-2)

Steelers @ Bengals (-7)

Jaguars @ Commanders (-3)

Giants @ Titans (-5.5)

I’m not sold on the Steelers ability to hang with the Bengals offense, while the Commanders should be able to win by at least four points against a Jaguars team that’s a work in progress, while the Titans will likely be able to build a comfortable second-half lead on the strength of their dominant running game.

The Road ‘Dogs (1-3)

New England (+3) @ Miami

Browns (+1.5) @ Panthers

Packers (+2) @ Vikings

Raiders (+3.5) @ Chargers

I don’t like going against Bill Belichick or Aaron Rodgers, especially against divisional opponents. I expect Mike McDaniel to be a good head coach, but having your first game as a head coach be against the Patriots is a difficult ask, just like Kevin O’Connell has the impossible task of defeating Aaron Rodgers, king of the NFC North. The Browns, meanwhile, simply have a far better team that the Browns, and while Baker Mayfield will do his best to make the Browns regret moving on from him, I find it more likely than not that the Browns can at the very least win the game on a last second field goal. The Raiders, meanwhile, are being overlooked in the AFC West. Davante Adams and Chandler Jones will be gamechangers for the Raiders, and I expect Josh McDaniels to be a lot better as a head coach on his second stint. I think they have a great ability to win this week, and at the very least cover the three-and-a-half point spread.

The Road Favorites (2-2)

Ravens (-6.5) @ Jets

Colts (-7) @ Texans

Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cowboys

Broncos (-6.5) @ Seahawks

The Ravens, Colts, and Broncos are among the best teams out of the AFC that didn’t make the playoffs a season ago, and I expect big things from them this season, while I expect very little from the Jets and Texans and Seahawks. This week will set the tone for the six teams’ seasons. The Cowboys will regress this year, while Tom Brady is as stable as they come. I’m not betting against Tom Brady, not this week.

Overall: 7-8