For a significant portion of the 2000s, the New Orleans Saints have been one of the most stable franchises in the NFL. General manager Mickey Loomis, former head coach Sean Payton, and former QB Drew Brees saw to that, shepherding in the most successful era of Saints football. Despite a three-season lull in the mid-2010s, the New Orleans Saints were considered threats to win the Super Bowl over the course of several seasons, most recently from 2017-2020. But things began to change last offseason with the retirement of Drew Brees, and the franchise felt the sting of another departure this past offseason when Sean Payton retired despite having three more seasons on his contract. With two pillars of the Saints most successful era outside of the building, the team is relying on a defense that has arguably become the best in the league to make sure this new era of Saints football ends with similar results to the previous regime.

The Saints tried – and ultimately came up short – attempting to challenge the notion that the quarterback is the most important position in football a season ago, as the team was a Los Angeles Rams collapse away from qualifying for the postseason field over the San Francisco 49ers. Despite Jameis Winston’s improved decision making, his tenure wasn’t without its struggles. In a week two loss to the Carolina Panthers, Winston wasn’t able to spark the offense, often times struggling to find viable passing lanes and taking unnecessary sacks. It was a cruel twist of fate that just as Winston was seemingly settling into his role as the Saints’ starting quarterback, he tore his ACL on Halloween against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The team’s subsequent four game losing streak appeared to torpedo their playoff chances, but the team was able to rally with (in spite of?) Taysom Hill playing under center to be a factor heading into the league’s final week. Most teams that use four different starting quarterbacks in one season do not end the season above .500, but that’s what the Saints did. And with so many high-quality players at other key positions on the roster, the belief within the organization that they just need stability at the quarterback position to contend for a Lombardi Trophy doesn’t feel far-fetched.

Beginning with the 2017 season, the New Orleans Saints have fielded a defense that’s landed inside the top half of the league every season, a level of consistency only rivaled by the Chicago Bears during that span. Every other top ten defensive unit over the past five seasons has fallen on tough times at least once from 2017-2021. Looking at the production of defenses over the past five seasons offers a few hints as to what the team should expect heading into the 2022 season. Among all teams that fielded a top ten defense over the past five seasons, only 40% were able to sustain the results over consecutive seasons. Digging further into that number, among the teams that were consistently good on defense for two seasons, most sustained that level of play even further. Not counting the Packers and Saints (both teams coming off of back-to-back top ten team defensive performances), there were nine teams with consecutive top ten defensive seasons. Of those, six were able to string three seasons in a row fielding a top ten defense. As for the three teams that didn’t have three consecutive top ten defenses, two (the Jaguars and Vikings) had top ten defenses in 2016, giving both three top ten performances in a row, and the other (the Bills) followed their #14 finish in 2020 with the top defensive performance in the league last season.

With that being said, because the Saints have already shown their worth on defense over the past five seasons (the last two, in particular, being memorable), chances are in their favor to continue showing us who they are in 2022. And while a precipitous drop is always possible, if there is a drop-off in performance, they will likely land in the 16-20 range. Among all teams who have dropped from their top ten standing, the average spot they landed the next season was as the 20th ranked defensive unit. The teams with consecutive top ten seasons fared slightly better when they eventually dropped from that upper tier, with an average finish as the 18th-ranked defense.

So, while we can be somewhat comfortable knowing what the floor and ceiling is for the Saints on defense, we aren’t given the same luxury when predicting their offensive performance. The team’s offensive numbers cratered in the absence of Drew Brees, but it’s not exactly easy to pinpoint one exact area of improvement when the team lacked so many crucial playmakers over the course of the season. When Jameis Winston was healthy, the receiving corps he had at his disposal left much to be desired. Adding Michael Thomas back into the fold, as well as first round draft pick Chris Olave and free agent (and former LSU Tiger) Jarvis Landry, Winston has a trio of targets that easily surmount the talent he was throwing to last season. But the offense’s biggest weapon – Alvin Kamara – is dealing with legal proceeds that will likely result in an NFL suspension at the very least. And as we saw the team’s offense in shambles without Kamara a season ago, any prolonged absence from their star running back will have dire consequences.

The Saints have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, hands down. The defense is lined with players who rank among the best at their given positions, and the offense has names that have been proven commodities in the past but will need to overcome personal hurdles for the team to reach its potential. But if things do go south, what will happen to all these veterans hungry to win a championship? Will the team try to amass draft capital by selling off its biggest assets? Will they bite the bullet and submit themselves to a painful rebuild? The New Orleans Saints are hoping that the winning culture instilled by Payton and Brees over a decade and a half isn’t the next piece to leave the building.