My prediction is in bold. The actual team to cover is italicized.

The Home ‘Dogs (3-1)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (+5.5)

49ers @ Bears (+6.5)

Eagles @ Lions (+6)

Chiefs @ Cardinals (+6.5)

The Falcons, Bears, Lions, and Cardinals are all projected to lose by more than a field goal, and while they are all playing superior opponents, sportsbooks are being a little too generous to the road teams. The Saints and Falcons will always be competitive due to it being a division match, while the weather in Chicago should neutralize any athletic advantage the 49ers have over the Bears. The Lions will most likely be bad again, but they proved last year that under Dan Campbell they will be a difficult out for any opponent, while the Cardinals have enough offensive firepower to keep up with a new-look Chiefs offense.

The Home Favorites (1-2)

Steelers @ Bengals (-7)

Jaguars @ Commanders (-3)

Giants @ Titans (-5.5)

I’m not sold on the Steelers ability to hang with the Bengals offense, while the Commanders should be able to win by at least four points against a Jaguars team that’s a work in progress, while the Titans will likely be able to build a comfortable second-half lead on the strength of their dominant running game.

The Road ‘Dogs (1-3)

New England (+3) @ Miami

Browns (+1.5) @ Panthers

Packers (+2) @ Vikings

Raiders (+3.5) @ Chargers

I don’t like going against Bill Belichick or Aaron Rodgers, especially against divisional opponents. I expect Mike McDaniel to be a good head coach, but having your first game as a head coach be against the Patriots is a difficult ask, just like Kevin O’Connell has the impossible task of defeating Aaron Rodgers, king of the NFC North. The Browns, meanwhile, simply have a far better team that the Browns, and while Baker Mayfield will do his best to make the Browns regret moving on from him, I find it more likely than not that the Browns can at the very least win the game on a last second field goal. The Raiders, meanwhile, are being overlooked in the AFC West. Davante Adams and Chandler Jones will be gamechangers for the Raiders, and I expect Josh McDaniels to be a lot better as a head coach on his second stint. I think they have a great ability to win this week, and at the very least cover the three-and-a-half point spread.

The Road Favorites (2-2)

Ravens (-6.5) @ Jets

Colts (-7) @ Texans

Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cowboys

Broncos (-6.5) @ Seahawks

The Ravens, Colts, and Broncos are among the best teams out of the AFC that didn’t make the playoffs a season ago, and I expect big things from them this season, while I expect very little from the Jets and Texans and Seahawks. This week will set the tone for the six teams’ seasons. The Cowboys will regress this year, while Tom Brady is as stable as they come. I’m not betting against Tom Brady, not this week.

Overall: 7-8