For a week two game, the stakes feel incredibly high in the lead-up to Bucs-Saints in New Orleans. The Saints can jump out to a 2-0 record within the division and a leg up on the projected favorites to win the NFC South – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – while the Bucs will begin to pave the way to consecutive south division titles with a victory.

While oddsmakers would have us believe the Buccaneers will come away with the win on Sunday, I’m a bit more skeptical about their chances. This past weekend, the Buccaneers looked a cut above the rest of the NFC in a defensive clinic against the Cowboys, but some of the things the Buccaneers did best a week ago plays into the strengths of the Saints defense. Leonard Fournette turned in a dominant performance last week with 21 carries and 127 yards, good enough to average six yards per carry. But of those numbers, a disproportionate amount came to the left side of the offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, 16 of Fournette’s 21 carries took the running back to the left side of the line. He was brilliant on those carries, picking up 118 yards at a healthy 7.4 yards per carry (YPC). The team largely avoided running to the right side, however, and it’s hard not to justify that decision when the result is five carries for nine yards (1.8 YPC).

If you watched Cordarrell Patterson become the first running back since 2020 to rack up 100+ yards on the ground against the Saints defense, it would be fair to be concerned that Fournette could find similar success this weekend. Patterson had an even split of carries to the left and right side, and on his eleven carries to the right, he averaged an impressive 78 yards (7.1 YPC). To the left, his eleven carries netted 42 yards, an average of 3.8 YPC.

PLAYER	ATTEMPTS LEFT	YARDS LEFT	ATTEMPTS RIGHT	YARDS RIGHT
LEONARD FOURNETTE	16	118	5	9
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON	11	42	11	78

If the Buccaneers aren’t able to run out of multiple looks and formations on Sunday, it could spell doom for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers passing game, as they could potentially see themselves playing behind the sticks. And while the Saints weren’t able to sack Marcus Mariota a week ago, going against a far less mobile quarterback may help in that department, as Brady did find himself under pressure on occasion against the Cowboys.

As for the Buccaneers on defense, nose tackle Vita Vea will perhaps be their most important player. While the Buccaneers get most of their pass rush off the edge, the Saints are strongest at the tackle position. According to PFF, James Hurst (89.5) and Ryan Ramczyk (81.0) graded out as two of the best pass blocking tackles in week one. The interior of the line is where the Saints struggled against the Falcons, and the grades given to Andrus Peat (65.9) and Cesar Ruiz (43.9) reflect as much. Vea recorded a sack and four pressures (combination of sacks, hits to the QB, and forced hurried throws) last week, and could feast against weaker competition again this weekend.

In a game where the teams’ strengths and weaknesses are inversely related to each other, the one advantage could be the dome. Yes, the Alvin Kamara injury is a critical situation to keep an eye on, but the Buccaneers are arguably in a worse position when it comes to injuries at key positions. Wide receiver Chris Godwin has already been ruled out, while fellow receivers Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage are all listed as questionable, same as Kamara. Their best lineman, Tristan Wirfs, is also questionable, as is Fournette. For the Saints, both Winston and running back Mark Ingram are also on the injury report with a “questionable” designation, and if the team is down to Andy Dalton and Tony Jones Jr. as their starters in the backfield, things may get dicey quick for the Saints.

While both teams are already feeling the impact of the injury bug, that the Saints get to host this game in their first home game of the 2022 season feels like the most significant advantage. Odds are come January the Buccaneers with Tom Brady will once again be the last team standing out of the NFC South. But the division won’t be a cakewalk for the Buccaneers, and we’ll find out why on Sunday.

Update (Sunday): With the official list for the weekend’s actives and inactives set, we now know the Saints will be without Kamara, while Winston and Ingram are going to suite up. Meanwhile, for the Buccaneers, Julio Jones is officially out, while Evans, Gage, and Wirfs are available. I will still ride with my initial prediction, even though Tampa Bay’s chances of winning greatly increase with the Saints unable to turn to Kamara in their backfield. I still like the Saints ability to rush Brady in this game, and I’m wary of Fournette’s ability to replicate last week’s success, particularly if the Bucs are restricted to running towards the left all game. The dome will be electric, and as great as Brady is, the circumstances surrounding his appearance are anything but for the Buccaneers.

Game Prediction: New Orleans 24 – Tampa Bay 17

If Tampa Bay wins: Tampa Bay 20 – New Orleans 10