The Road Underdogs (4-4)

Dolphins (+4.0) vs. Bengals

Commanders (+3.5) vs. Cowboys

Seahawks (+4.5) vs. Lions

Titans (+3.5) vs. Colts

Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Eagles

Jets (+3.5) vs. Steelers

Cardinals (+1.5) vs. Panthers

Rams (+2.5) vs. 49ers

At least four of these lines feature the better team as the underdog, which even factoring in them being on the road feels like a bit much. The Dolphins are much better than the Bengals right now. The Titans inspire more confidence than the Colts, while the Cardinals and Rams are better than the Panthers and 49ers. I like the Lions to win, but their defense will allow Geno Smith to keep things interesting. -6.5 is a lot of points to give the Eagles, especially against a team that just won by 28. The Commanders will bounce back from that awful performance a week ago. And until the Steelers move on from Trubisky, I can’t in good conscience put money on them.

The Home Favorites (2-1)

Bears vs. Giants (-3.5)

Patriots vs. Packers (-10)

Broncos vs. Raiders (-2.5)

Perhaps three of the worst offenses on the road? Bet the home favorites! Justin Fields has been a disaster for the Bears despite a 2-1 start, and the Patriots are without Mac Jones heading into their game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Broncos are just depressing despite their 2-1 record, while if the Raiders don’t win this week, McDaniels may be back in New England calling plays by the end of October.

The Road Favorites (1-2)

Browns (-1.5) vs. Falcons

Bills (-3.5) vs. Ravens

Chargers (-5) vs. Texans

-1.5 for the Browns feels disrespectful. Absolutely no way the Falcons stop Chubb in his return to Georgia. The Bills and Chargers, meanwhile, are out for blood after both crashed a week ago.

The Home Underdogs (0-2)

Vikings vs. Saints (+2.5)

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers (+2)

The Vikings defense is as much as mess as the Saints offense. If the Saints can’t get it right on that side of the ball now, when? And people beginning to doubt Tom Brady? Sounds like the perfect time to back him in primetime.

This week: 7-9